Keeping an EYE on... Developments

[Zelda]

First tropical depression of the season may form from 92L

Dr. Jeff Masters - Weather Underground Blog - Updated: 3:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2010

An unusually large and well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season has developed midway between the coast of Africa and South America. The storm was designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season.

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Climatology argues against development of 92L, since only one named storm has ever formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the month of June--Tropical Storm Ana of 1979. However, sea surface temperatures underneath 92L are an extremely high 28 - 30°C, which is warmer than the temperatures reached during the peak of hurricane season last year, in August - September. In fact, with summer not even here, and three more months of heating remaining until we reach peak SSTs in the Atlantic, ocean temperatures across the entire Caribbean and waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are about the same as they were during the peak week for water temperatures in 2009 (mid-September.)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ticle.html

[Zelda]

92L very disorganized, but a long-range threat to develop

Updated: 2:05 PM GMT on June 18, 2010

Invest 92L, which yesterday became severely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, is generating a large area of rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Infrared satellite loops show that the tops of the thunderstorms associated with 92L have warmed in recent hours, and these thunderstorms are weak and disorganized. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms. With wind shear at 20 - 30 knots today, no signs of a surface circulation, and plenty of dry air around, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put the chances at 1%

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ticle.html

good to know...

[Miss Kenni]

So now we have 93. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201093_model.html

[Zelda]

yep, 92 petered out, thankfully

93 looks interesting, doesn't give me any shivers yet, 'cause all the predictions show it heading north of Belize, perhaps just clipping the tip of the Yucatan...

[Miss Kenni]

Yes, right into the Gulf of Mexico ...

[Zelda]

oh sh*t, sorry... I was being selfish there Kenni, thinking only of Belize, and forgetting about the Deepwater Horizon...

[Zelda]

your morning report, on the locale and direction of I - 93

[Zelda]

Forecast for 93L

NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Wednesday afternoon, with Thursday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air absent, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Thursday, and it is a bit of a surprise to me that the computer models have been reluctant to develop 93L. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 93L, and the ECMWF model doesn't develop 93L until after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico in a about a week. The current (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicts 93L will be a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in five days; its previous run had 93L as a major hurricane in the Gulf.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ticle.html

[Miss Kenni]

Don't worry, Z, I understand that syndrome well. When the computer models start showing up, I too look first at whether my places look to be in harm's way.

The predictions for this one are still all over the board, for even a 3-day forecast ... http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201093_model.gif

[PaulS]

Here we go then...

[Zelda]

ay yi yi yi yi !!

it's drench-pouring at Darwin Farm...

ALEX is here...

[Zelda]

Tropical Weather Outlook:

TS Alex 195 miles east by south of Belize City. Center near Lat 17.0N Long 85.3W. Moving to wards the west - northwest at 8mph. Further strengthening possible before landfall.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/

Dr. Jeff Masters (Wunderblog) is going to do an update on Alex later this morning...

but first, here's a historical look at past storms with similar formation and travel-patterns:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ticle.html

[Zelda]

Patrick Jones, Reporter: What does this mean for Belize in terms of our weather conditions?

Derrick Rudon: “It means that the weather will be bad. We will get rains tonight and tomorrow and it could be even worse it develops....”

<snipped>

Patrick Jones: Looking at that picture, that is telling me that it is bringing a lot of rain with it.

Derrick Rudon: “Right, we are expecting about three to four inches of rain for the next two to three days.”

http://www.lovefm.com/ndisplay.php?nid=12247

[Zelda]

Woody looked outside, and wanted to skip Saturday market this morning...

I said, "Take a look at THIS!" and "Better go NOW, and get groceries, before...."



Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ticle.html

[Miss Kenni]

May your current and ISP stay on while your pond and cistern fill!